Commodities and Macroeconomic Factors: Unconditional Volatility Measures

Abstract:

This study focuses on the measurement of spillover effects from macroeconomic factors to commodity volatility. It argues that such measurement is sensitive to volatility computation and to causality testing. To this end, I analyze two commodity data sets-gold and the Continuous Commodity Index (1969-2011), and twenty-four Dow Jones futures indexes (1991-2011)-and various macroeconomic indicators. I conclude that the macroeconomic factors that influence volatility generally depend on the commodity under consideration. I also explore whether commodities of the same class experience volatility shifts around the same dates, and find that this is not the case except for energy commodities.     

当代大学生信息素质教育

信息素质教育是大学生素质教育的重要组成部分.高校图书馆应开设有关课程,开展一系列教育活动,加强大学生信息能力的培养,大力发展信息专业教育.     

“老好人”能当好团队领导吗?——团队领导宜人性与团队创造力的关系

中国人自古有"不得罪人""以和为贵"等方面的文化沉淀。受传统文化的影响,中国企业在团队管理实践中不免出现团队领导的"老好人"式管理。团队领导当"老好人"是会促进还是会阻碍团队创造力的提升,这在理论探讨和管理实践上是个有趣的议题。在倡导企业创新驱动的新时代背景下,本文针对团队领导"老好人"现象,从信息加工视角,运用自我分类理论观点,建立团队领导宜人性、团队信息深度加工与团队创造力之间传导作用机制研究模型。本研究通过对中国企业166个团队进行问卷调查,收集了132份有效团队样本数据,并采取调节路径分析方法进行了实证分析。研究发现,团队领导宜人性会通过团队信息深度加工影响团队创造力,过高或过低的宜人性都不利于团队创新。有"老好人"倾向的团队领导应展现中等水平的宜人性特征,防止陷入过低或过高宜人性的怪圈,并应重视推动团队信息的深度加工,这样才能最大限度地促进团队创造力的提升。本研究拓展了团队领导个性特征对团队创造力的影响机制研究,同时对于中国企业领导干部提高团队创造力也具有一定的指导意义。     

Value Chain Connectivity in Indonesia: The Evolution of Unbundlings

This paper applies the conceptual framework of ‘unbundling’, proposed by Baldwin (2016), to assess the value chain connectivity in Indonesia. Indonesia is a geographically large country, and three different levels of unbundling co-exist. The first unbundling aligns with the industry-wise international division of labour in plantation agriculture, mining, and labour-intensive industries; the second aligns with where the task-wise international division of labour dominates mainly in machinery industries; and the third aligns with where face-to-face costs are reduced by the digital economy. We argue that the further upgrading of unbundling and the more effective use of advanced piecemeal technologies among different levels of unbundling will enable Indonesia to achieve rapid and equitable economic development. Overcoming distance is key for effectively using the mechanics of unbundling. We propose that three key elements are be promoted: enhancement of connectivity, development of the service sector, and improvement of the policy environment.     

主办券商声誉机制对新三板挂牌企业会计信息质量影响的实证研究

新三板作为完善我国多层次资本市场的重要举措,在扩宽企业融资渠道、促进实体经济 发展等方面发挥着重要作用,然而信息披露质量不完善仍是制约新三板挂牌企业发展的重要因素。 基于企业会计信息质量视角,文章以 2006-2015 年新三板挂牌企业为研究样本,探讨主办券商声 誉机制是否能够发挥相应的治理作用。研究发现:高声誉主办券商促进了新三板挂牌企业信息披 露质量的提高,而且主要体现在市场化水平较高的省份;进一步研究表明主办券商声誉对信息质 量的治理作用在协议转让与创新层企业中更为明显。研究表明主办券商声誉能够对新三板挂牌企 业发挥相应的持续督导作用,对于如何提升新三板挂牌企业信息披露质量具有一定的借鉴意义。     

企业社会责任能降低股价同步性吗？——基于强制披露企业社会责任报告的准自然实验

中国2008 年沪深证券交易所强制披露社会责任报告政策为笔者研究其政策效应提供了准 自然实验,文章以2006-2011 年中国A 股上市公司为样本,分别从信息不对称和代理成本两条路 径研究强制披露社会责任报告对股价同步性的影响。运用PSM-DID 双重差分模型研究发现: 强制 披露社会责任报告与股价同步性呈现显著负相关关系,说明强制披露社会责任报告有助于降低股 价同步性,在通过安慰剂实验、变量替换和平行效应检验等稳健性检验后,以上结论仍成立。对 影响路径的分析发现,强制披露社会责任报告通过降低信息不对称和代理成本影响未来股价同步 性。     

专利视角下共享单车技术现状与发展分析

共享单车是为了解决市民出行“最后一公里”的难题,其随时随地骑车、停车的创新性经营理念方便了市民的短途出行。而知识产权制度是激励创新的基本保障,解决的是科技创新“最先一公里”和“最后一公里”的问题。其中,专利是企业知识产权工作的重点之一,共享单车在方便市民出行的同时,必须考虑如何让自身顺利发展。通过对共享单车专利信息进行检索,从专利视角下对共享单车技术现状与发展趋势进行分析,进而提出技术发展趋势与专利布局相关建议。     

Interest Rates in Trade Credit Markets

All things equal, interest rates should increase with the borrower's risk. And yet, Klapper, Laeven, and Rajan (2012) cannot find such a positive relation in a broad sample of trade credit contracts. We shed some light on this puzzle by arguing that competition between informed and uninformed suppliers weakens the link between the trade credit cost and the borrower's creditworthiness. Our model implies that trade credit rates are more likely to increase with the borrower's risk if suppliers are less profitable, have high cost of funds, or sell inputs to firms plagued by moral hazard and financial distress.     

财务重述、管理层权力与股价崩盘风险：来自中国证券市场的经验证据

股市震荡引发投资者和监管层对股价崩盘风险的关注。从财务重述背后所反映的财务信息质量低下和公司治理失效出发,探讨其对股价崩盘风险的影响,结合管理层权力这一影响组织行为和产出能力的代理人特征,探讨其对财务重述与股价崩盘风险之间关系的影响。研究结果表明：相比未发生财务重述的公司,发生了财务重述的公司的股价崩盘风险明显更高;进一步纳入代理人特征———管理层权力后,发现代理人的这一特征对上述关系有明显的促进作用。     

How should we estimate value-relevance models? Insights from European data

We study the consequences of unobserved heterogeneity when employing different econometric methods in the estimation of two major value-relevance models: the Price Regression Model (PRM) and the Return Regression Model (RRM). Leveraging a large panel data set of European listed companies, we first demonstrate that robust Hausman tests and Breusch-Pagan Lagrange Multiplier tests are of fundamental importance to choose correctly among a fixed-effects model, a random-effects model, or a pooled OLS model. Second, we provide evidence that replacing firm fixed-effects with country and industry fixed-effects can lead to large differences in the magnitude of the key coefficients, with serious consequences for the interpretation of the effect of changes in earnings and book values per share on firm value. Finally, we offer recommendations to applied researchers aiming to improve the robustness of their econometric strategy.